An outsider observing politics would be forgiven for thinking that politics and allegations of sexual misconduct go hand in hand. Some politicians step down from their roles when scandals become public, while others do their best to ride the storm.
But what effect do allegations of sexual harassment have on voters? New research from 成人直播app and Queen Mary University of London has investigated whether people are less likely to vote for a candidate accused of sexual harassment and to what extent personal values play in the likelihood of such candidates getting votes.
On average, people tend to punish politicians accused of sexual misconduct, while others stand by their party loyalty and vote for a candidate they like despite the allegations against them. Some studies suggest that voters care less about sexual scandals and more about corruption.
Existing research shows the impact of timing, and a scandal breaking during an election campaign can be more problematic for a candidate than an earlier disclosure. Whether a scandal breaks in the early stages of a campaign or towards the end can also impact a candidate’s support.
When news of a scandal is repeated over time, this can intensify the negative effects, but without repetition, its impact can be minimised.
Dr Manu Savani, Senior Lecturer in Behavioural Public Policy at 成人直播app, said: “Individual values guide people in their decision making in all aspects of life, including politics. What we wanted to know was whether this also explained why some voters, more than others, were likely to punish candidates at the polls if accused of sexual misconduct.’
The new , published in the journal Electoral Studies, involved 704 American adult participants who took part in the researchers’ online survey, all of whom were eligible to vote in the 2020 US elections. They were all given basic information about a hypothetical male candidate who was standing for governor. He was from the participant’s favoured party and was introduced as a family man. The information outlined his policy priorities, and participants were asked how likely it was they would vote for him, based on the information they had. The survey results showed that 90% of participants formed a favourable first impression, and were inclined to vote for the potential governor.
For the next stage of the research, participants were randomly assigned to two different groups and given additional information about the candidate. One of the groups was informed about the work he was doing with local schools, and it was expected to largely leave voters’ opinions unchanged.
In contrast, the second group was given very different information about the candidate. They read that the media had covered a sexual harassment story about him, following allegations made by two former colleagues three years ago. The allegations resulted in legal action, and the candidate settled a lawsuit.
The results showed that, having read the additional positive information about the candidate, the first group remained positive and voting intention increased to 94%. In contrast, the second group showed a fall in voting intention to 43%, having read about the sexual harassment case.
“Although our results showed that candidates lose voter support when they are linked to allegations of sexual harassment, a sizeable minority would still vote for a candidate accused of sexual harassment,” said Dr Savani.
“We find that that personal values appear to be strongly associated with these outcomes.”
Dr Sofia Collignon, Lecturer in Comparative Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: ‘We found that personal values of universalism and benevolence were particularly important. If the voter prioritised the welfare of other people over power and ambition, they were more likely to switch away from the accused candidate.’
Another interesting finding showed that 60-69 year olds were more favourable to the accused candidate than 18-30 year olds, across both groups. Keeping in mind that older people are more likely to vote, this will be welcome news for politicians involved in scandals.